Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model

The problem of large population is one of the most important factors influencingthe economy and social advancement of Egypt. Population forecasts, whencarefully and intelligently made, serves a valuable purpose in helping to direct theemployment of labor and capital to places or projects where they are most needed.Firstly, the paper focuses on studying the population of the capital of Egypt (Cairo).By large numbers of sampling to the population data sequence, the increasing trendis found. Then, a time series model is given which can accurately forecast thepopulation of Cairo. Multiple Autoregressive models AR (1), AR (2) are used theforecasting of the population in the next twenty years. The parameters of the modelare calculated using the famous two methods: Yule-Walker and Burg. Before usingthe model to make predictions, the test of model response is verified, and the MSEand MAPE are measured to verify the models. The result is a scary image of thepopulation in this city. Full descriptions for the steps of selecting the suitable modeland comprehensive MATLAB simulation are presented. Secondly, the totalpopulation density of Egypt is analyzing and forecasting with using the measureddata from 1970 to 2013. The same steps of the first part are done with thepopulation density and forecasting of the increasing of the population density ofEgypt in the 20 next years is presented. The main reasons for the populationproblem are discussed and solution of this problem is presente

Optimum Bayesian thresholds for rebalanced classification problems using class-switching ensembles

Asymmetric label switching is an effective and principled method for creating a diverse ensemble of learners for imbalanced classification problems. This technique can be combined with other rebalancing mechanisms, such as those based on cost policies or class proportion modifications. In this study, and under the Bayesian theory framework, we specify the optimal decision thresholds for the combination of these mechanisms. In addition, we propose using a gating network to aggregate the learners contributions as an additional mechanism to improve the overall performance of the system.We thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and comments. This work is partially funded by Project PID2021-125652OB-I00 from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain. Funding for APC: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Read & Publish Agreement CRUE-CSIC 2022). In memoriam: Prof. Aníbal R. Figueiras-Vidal (1950-2022)

La desinstitucionalització i la crisi de les institucions

Parlar d'institucions s'ha convertit en parlar de la seva crisi. Amb l'assentament de la societat postindustrial sembla que s'han accentuat les dificultats de legitimació d'unes institucions creades per mantenir un tipus de formació social que esta en procés de desaparició. De fet, es pot dir que la crisi de les institucions no és més que un aspecte d'una altra de global que podríem anomenar crisi del projecte modern.Hablar de instituciones se ha convertido en hablar de crisis de las instituciones. En este sentido, la noción de desinstitucionalización ocupa un lugar relevante en la reflexión institucional. Por este motivo, en este artículo se lleva a cabo una revisión del concepto de institución v de las principales críticas que ha recibido como paso previo al análisis más detallado del fenómeno desinstitucionalizador en la práctica psiquiátrica. Tal análisis lleva a la elaboración de una propuesta alternativa que cuestiona la pertinencia de seguir hablando de instituciones, así como de procesos desinstitucionalizadores. Concretamente, se plantea que las especiales características de algunas prácticas psiquiátricas contemporáneas se ajustan mejor a la noción de ex-titución tomada de la obra de SerresSpeaking of the institutions implies nowadays speaking of the crisis of institutions. In that sense, the concept of disinstitutionalization fills a relevant role in the institutional reflection. For this reason, this article carries out a review of the concept of institution and the main criticisms that it has received as a previous step to a more detailed examination of the disinstitutionalizing phenomenon, in the framework of psychiatric experience. Such an examination leads to the making of an alternative proposal which questions the pertinence of keeping speaking of both institutions and disinstutionalizing processes. It is specifically argued that the special features of some contemporary psychiatric methods comply better with the concept of ex-titution, extracted from the Serres' work

A model of spatial location: New data for the Gor River megalithic landscape (Spain) from LiDAR technology and field survey

The megalithic cluster of the Gor River valley (Andalusia, Spain) is one of the biggest dolmenic groups in Europe, made up of 151 preserved megaliths. In spite of this high number of known monuments, increasing loss and destruction of many of the graves has taken place during the last decades due to enormous soil erosion and anthropogenic activities. With the aim of recording the location of these lost megaliths, Digital Terrain Models and LiDAR data have been used to analyse the terrain showing a high quantity of structures that seem similar to those actually documented in the zone but that were not noticed until now. These possible new burial mounds have been tested by archaeological surface survey, choosing three contrasting areas as samples. Results have shown a high success rate for this methodology, even allowing the discovery of new megalithic graves in heavily researched areas. We interpret the likely higher number of burial mounds in the area to indicate greater territorial control in boundary areas between 4th and 3rd millennium BC.Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain (MICINN) PID2020-117437GB-I00/AEI/10.13039/50110001103

Regulation of Microclimatic Conditions inside Native Beehives and Its Relationship with Climate in Southern Spain

In this study, the Wbee Sensor System was used to record data from 10 Iberian beehives for two years in southern Spain. These data were used to identify potential conditioning climatic factors of the internal regulatory behavior of the hive and its weight. Categorical principal components analysis (CATPCA) was used to determine the minimum number of those factors able to capture the maximum percentage of variability in the data recorded. Then, categorical regression (CATREG) was used to select the factors that were linearly related to hive internal humidity, temperature and weight to issue predictive regression equations in Iberian bees. Average relative humidity values of 51.7% ± 10.4 and 54.2% ± 11.7 were reported for humidity in the brood nest and in the food area, while average temperatures were 34.3 °C ± 1.5 in the brood nest and 29.9 °C ± 5.8 in the food area. Average beehive weight was 38.2 kg ± 13.6. Some of our data, especially those related to humidity, contrast with previously published results for other studies about bees from Central and northern Europe. Conclusively, certain combinations of climatic factors may condition within hive humidity, temperature and hive weight. Southern Iberian honeybees’ brood nest humidity regulatory capacity could be lower than brood nest thermoregulatory capacity, maintaining values close to 34 °C, even in dry conditions

Load resistor as a worst-case parameter to investigate single-event transients in analog electronic devices

One of the main phenomena that commit the reliability of analog electronic systems working in the outer space is the presence of energetic ions that produce spurious transients after crossing the device. These pulses are transmitted to the network loading the device and can eventually lead to dangerous situations as it has been observed in some spatial missions. This paper shows how the value of the resistor loading the device can affect the shape of the transients

An analog cell to detect single event transients in voltage references

A reliable voltage reference is mandatory in mixed-signal systems. However, this family of components can undergo very long single event transients when operating in radiation environments such as space and nuclear facilities due to the impact of heavy ions. The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate how a simple cell can be used to detect these transients. The cell was implemented with typical {COTS} components and its behavior was verified by {SPICE} simulations and in a laser facility. Different applications of the cell are explored as well

Sistema automático de inducción de transitorios en dispositivos electrónicos por medio de un laser pulsado

En este artículo, se describe un sistema que permite emular por medio de un láser los transitorios que pueden producir los rayos cósmicos en los componentes electrónicos. En particular, el sistema está adaptado para examinar componentes analógicos. Este sistema controla un osciloscopio digital conectado a la salida del dispositivo, que sitúa el láser en un punto específico del circuito integrado, y que almacena el transitorio observado en el dispositivo para realizar un posterior estudio estadístico. Este sistema ha sido utilizado para conocer los transitorios que pueden aparecer en un amplificador operacional (LM124) y un comparador de tensión (LM111)

Statistical analysis on metric and geometric features of dolmens in the Gor river megalithic landscape (Granada, Andalusia, Spain)

Funding for open access charge: University of Granada/CBUA.The construction of dolmens took place in Europe from the Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age (fifth millennium BC–second millennium BC) and had a rapid development along the Atlantic façade, with an important focus in Andalusia. Within this area, the megalithic necropolises located in the banks of the Gor River (Granada, Andalusia, Spain) are studied. In this paper, multivariate techniques are applied to characterize the dolmens associated with the Gor river megalithic landscape by means of two analyses. First, a new classification of the dolmens in necropolises using their location variables produces an optimal number of 8 necropolis instead of the traditional 11. In addition, this classification improves the traditional spatial division of the dolmens because there is no overlapping between necropolises. Secondly, a multivariate analysis of the dimensional variables, which aims to detect possible constructional patterns, is performed obtaining three main variables of grouping. The first two, length and width of the chamber, can be summarized as the area of the chamber and, in terms of this, the dolmens can be classified into two main groups. The third one, the length of the corridor, can be considered as a factor for intragroup discrimination.University of Granada/CBU

A Geographical Dataset Describing the Complexity of the Gor River Megalithic Landscape

This paper presents the data that have served as the basis for the study of the spatial patterns of the megaliths of the Gor River Valley (Granada, Spain) as part of a PhD dissertation presented in July 2023 at the University of Granada. This complex, of which 151 dolmens are currently preserved, is one of the largest in Europe, standing out fundamentally because of its density. This feature undoubtedly points out the importance of symbolic territorial control searched by Late Prehistoric communities that built these graves. The geographical databases here presented are two: on the one hand, the database made up of up to 70 quantitative and qualitative variables that has been used to carry out the bulk of the doctoral study on the 151 referred dolmens and, on the other hand, the database made up of a total of 230 points identified through the review of DTMs based on LiDAR data and which could correspond totally or partially to burial mounds that have practically disappeared or are poorly preserved on the surface.Como se expone en el propio artículo, este está destinado a poner a disposición pública no sólo los resultados de una investigación de largo recorrido sobre el megalitismo del Tío de Gor sino también los datos brutos que se han generado durante el proceso para que cualquier investigador pueda reproducirlos. Los resultados más relevantes de esta investigación implican la utilización de los megalitos en el área para marcar el territorio explotado por las comunidades que construyeron los sepulcros y las rutas que utilizaron para desplazarse. Esta demarcación tuvo inicio, a travésde este tipo de construcciones, durante el IV milenio cal AC pero, sobre todo, condujo a un sistema perfectamente estructurado en el III milenio AC hasta que las tumbas terminaron por situarse en una serie de emplazamientos que no sólo garantizaron su intervisibilidad sino el dominio sobre las áreas de mayor interés para los desplazamientos (especialmente desde el valle al altiplano) y que, en muchos casos, quedaban relativamente escondidas en el abrupto paisaje abarrancado de la zona. Además, como han confirmado las dataciones, muchos de los sepulcros volvieron a usarse durante la Edad del Bronce y especialmente en sus fases finales de la transición entre el II y el I milenios a. C. La investigación, además, ha permitido plantear, a través de análisis LiDAR que alguno de los sepulcros que originalmente se situaban en el altiplano y que se presumía desaparecidos pueden existir todavía muy destruidos y/o bajo grandes majanos generados por limpieza de las tierras de labor.Producción artesanal y división del trabajo en el Calcolítico del Sudeste de la Península Ibérica: un análisis a partir del registro arqueológico de Los Millares (PARTESI) (PID2020-117437GB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Agencia Estatal de Investigación del Ministerio de Ciencia e InnovaciónDinámicas de continuidad y transformación entre el Neolítico y el Calcolítico en el Alto Guadalquivir (DINAGUA) (Proy_Exc00002). Consejería de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación de la Junta de AndalucíaArqueobiología del Neolítico del Sur de la Península Ibérica – NeArqBioSI (A-HUM-460-UGR18). Consejería de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación de la Junta de Andalucía. FEDERImagen e Ideología en la Prehistoria Reciente de Granada (IMIDEGRA) (A-HUM-262-UGR20). Consejería de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación de la Junta de Andalucía. FEDE